In it, but not of it. TPM DC
Last week, a spokesman for the Massachusetts Secretary of State told us that it would likely take between 10 and 20 days for the winner to be certified. Either way, though, interim senator Paul Kirk will remain a voting member until the winner is seated, according to the aide.
The size of the window between election day and the winner's swearing in could be crucial. If Republican Scott Brown wins, Democrats will have to do some quick math to determine the answer to two key questions: How long do we have? And how quickly can we move ahead with "Plan A"?
(Plan A, you'll recall, is for the House to amend the Senate health care bill and then send it back to the upper chamber for final passage.)
Last week, I asked House Speaker Nancy Pelosi if the election in Massachusetts was upping the pressure on Democrats to reach a deal quickly.
"The fact that the CBO takes so much time is really more the issue," she said. That'll be at the heart of the calculation: can the House get numbers back from CBO quickly enough to pass a bill in a way that gives the Senate enough time to push past its time-consuming procedural hurdles before their majority drops by one.
This math, of course, will have to take into account the political risks involved in slow-walking Brown's swearing in. If Brown wins, particularly if he wins convincingly, Republicans will want to see him seated as soon as possible--no footdragging. More on what you can expect to see if Brown wins in a forthcoming post.
Additional reporting by Christina Bellantoni