The TPM Poll Average has Crist trailing Marco Rubio by a margin of 59.1%-27.9%, a mirror image of where things were a year ago. However, a Quinnipiac poll from last week suggested that Crist could potentially win a three-way race as an independent, against Rubio and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek.
Crist has now begun openly considering an independent run. Also, several Republicans have been backing away from their support for him in the last week, including former Sen. Connie Mack (R-FL), Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and others.
Whatever the facts are, Crist has until the April 30 filing deadline to officially decide whether he will run as a Republican or as an independent.