Like it or not — and believe it or not — Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is poised to jump into the GOP presidential primary. While she could end up being a serious contender in her own right, her entry into the race will perhaps be even more significant for the scrambling of strategies it could set off among her fellow candidates.
When Bachmann first started making noises about a possible presidential run, it seemed more like a gambit to keep attention on her pet issues. She said this past January that she could have up to 12 months to decide, seemingly putting a decision as late as just slightly before the Iowa caucuses.
But one thing led to another, and now the prospects of an actual Bachmann campaign are looking a lot more serious. Bachmann has said she will announce her plans this month in Waterloo, Iowa, the town where she was born. It is hard to imagine a politician putting together a big rally in Iowa, only to deliver a speech announcing that they were not running. And in case there wasn’t any doubt left, she is now scheduled to participate in an actual GOP candidates’ debate on June 13, in New Hampshire.
By definition, anyone on stage during a debate must be either a candidate, or a moderator — and it’s fair to say there is very little that could be called moderate about Bachmann.
Another significant sign that Bachmann could be a real player came with the recent news that she was signing longtime Republican operative Ed Rollins to run her campaign. Rollins, who managed President Ronald Reagan’s landslide re-election in 1984, and was national director for the insurgent GOP primary candidacy of Mike Huckabee in 2008, confirmed to ABC news that he would join the campaign (if Bachmann chooses to run, of course). And while there is no formal title yet, he added, “as the oldest person in the room, it’s safe to say, I’d be in charge.”
Of course, Rollins is now making some headlines of his own, by slamming Sarah Palin — a Bachmann ally who once campaigned with the congresswoman in a high-profile rally — and extolling how much better Bachmann would be as a candidate. Rollins has badmouthed Palin in the past. So if Palin were to run or is thinking of getting in, this would be an early warning shot across her bow.
One GOP hopeful who Bachmann could definitely cause problems for: Tim Pawlenty, the former governor of her home state. A recent PPP (D) survey of Iowa showed Mitt Romney ahead in the state — and Bachmann ahead of Pawlenty within the rest of the pack. (Pawlenty does, however, have a healthy lead over Bachmann in their shared home state of Minnesota.)
As Bachmann keeps pointing out on the trail, she was born in Iowa, which could help endear her to caucus-goers. Beyond that, she has an advantage many other Republicans don’t: She doesn’t just speak Tea Party fluently, but as a first language. After all, it was all the way back in March 2009, when the Tea Parties were just barely being formed, that she called for revolution in America against President Obama. As such, she has serious potential to push the level of rhetoric in the primaries even further to the right than they were already heading.
All of this helps Bachmann in a very particular way. It’s clear from observing her events, whether a Capitol Hill Tea Party or a small GOP event in North Dakota, that she quite simply likes campaigning. She likes meeting voters, delivering a speech to a large crowd or a small one, and getting either one of them fired up. As the primaries really commence in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and elsewhere, do not count that out.
Of course, this has often lead to some amusing off-the-cuff fumbles. She once told a conservative rally at the Capitol: “It’s the charge of the light brigade!” (The Light Brigade lost) She also misplaced the historic Revolutionary War towns of Lexington and Concord, Massachusetts, into New Hampshire. And in an infamous House speech, she blamed Franklin Roosevelt for something call the “Hoot-Smalley” tariffs.
But at the end of the day, the same qualities that often lead Bachmann to the edge of rhetorical cliffs, are the same that ignite fervor among her base in the far right wing of the GOP.
Time will tell – soon – how the rest of the Republican base responds.
