The new Rasmussen poll of the West Virginia special Senate election shows Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin starting out with a sizable lead against Republican businessman John Raese, in the race for the seat formerly held by the late Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd.
The numbers: Manchin 51%, Raese 35%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. There is no prior poll of this matchup for direct comparison. Raese first ran for the Senate way back in 1984, losing by a narrow 52%-48% against Democrat Jay Rockefeller in an open-seat race. He ran again in 2006 as Byrd’s Republican opponent, losing by a much wider 64%-36% against the long-entrenched incumbent despite his own personal spending on the race.
From the pollster’s analysis: “While Manchin earns support from 78% of Democrats, Raese attracts only 56% of Republicans. But the Republican holds a twelve-point advantage among voters not affiliated with either major political party. If Raese is to make the race competitive, he will have to start by finding a way to win over the 29% of Republicans who currently support Manchin.”
