The new Quinnipiac University poll of the Ohio gubernatorial race shows incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D) closing the gap with his opponent, Republican nominee John Kasich, but still trailing badly among the all-important independent vote.
The Q poll of likely voters shows Kasich ahead 50-41. The last poll of the race taken by the firm, released in mid-September, showed Kasich ahead 54-37. Strickland’s momentum here echoes other recent polls of the contest that have shown Strickland picking up steam. The TPM Poll Average shows Kasich leading 49.6-41.5.
Despite the apparent good news here for Dems, the new Q poll suggests that Strickland still has quite an uphill climb in the final four weeks of campaigning.
As the pollster reports, Strickland has shored up support with the Democratic base (86% of Democrats surveyed said they’re voting for him) but has been unable to make significant inroads with Ohio’s independent voters. (Strickland fans can basically forget Republican crossover votes, Quinnipiac says — Kasich has locked up 86% support among the GOP base in the state).
“Kasich’s 62 – 29 percent lead among independent voters is responsible for his overall lead,” the pollster reports. “Among the likely electorate, Strickland is viewed unfavorably by 47 percent and favorably by 41 percent, while Kasich is viewed favorably by 46 percent and unfavorably by 30 percent.”
Voter feelings about the state of things in Ohio also seem to favor Kasich in the final weeks of the campaign.
“Only 14 percent of likely voters think Ohio’s economy is getting better, while 45 percent think it is getting worse and 40 percent think it is staying the same,” the pollster writes. “Strickland leads 88 – 3 percent among those who think the economy is getting better and 55 – 38 percent among those who think it is the same, but Kasich leads 76 – 13 percent among those who think it is getting worse.”
Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown says that based on the new poll, Strickland’s path to victory could not be clearer. But that doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy.
“If Gov. Strickland is to mount a comeback, he needs to make a major dent in Kasich’s commanding lead among independent voters, who often make the difference in close elections in Ohio,” Brown said in a statement.
“There clearly is an anti-incumbent mood in the country and in Ohio as well,” he added. “That certainly doesn’t help Strickland. In most years, experience in office is a major plus with voters. But not necessarily this year.”
