The White House for more than a week has been saying today’s elections don’t reflect on the 2010 landscape for the Democratic party or President Obama.
That’s been echoed by Democrats across the spectrum today as the party braces for a probable loss in Virginia, a possible loss in the 23rd Congressional district in New York and a toss-up in New Jersey.
“I don’t think looking at the two gubernatorial races, you can draw with any great insight what’s going to happen a year from now any more than if Jake’s team wins tomorrow night I can tell who’s going to win next year’s World Series,” White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said today.
“We don’t look at either of these gubernatorial races or the congressional race as something that portends a lot for our legislative efforts going forward or political prospects in 2010,” he added.
“In 2001, President Bush lost Virginia and New Jersey. I don’t believe that it impacted his legislative initiatives going forward,” Gibbs said.
But TPM intern superstar Darius Tahir went searching, and found plenty of examples of Democrats saying Bush was doomed.
Terry McAuliffe told the New York Times in 2001 right before his party won both Virginia and New Jersey, “I view it as a referendum on the Republican party and their stale ideas.”
After the election McAuliffe said: ”When the president is at 90 percent approval and they run an anti-tax message where the chairman of the party is the governor of the state and yet our Democratic candidate wins the governorship, there’s something fundamentally wrong with the Republican message.”
In 2005, Democratic strategist Mo Elleithee, then a spokesman for Tim Kaine and now working for Creigh Deeds, told the New York Times that George W. Bush “fired up our base” by campaigning for Kaine’s Republican rival Jerry Kilgore.
“My expectation is to win two governors races in two tough states,” New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, then-chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, told the Times in 2005. “And to come into the ’06 election with some momentum, while Republican policies are collapsing.”
On the flip side, Democrats might like this post-2005 loss quote from Danny Diaz, then of the Republican National committee.
“Local races have always been about local issues,” Diaz said.
The Democratic National Committee today sent reporters a CNN poll showing Obama’s approval rating is “nearly identical” to what he had last year when he won the presidential election.
Not everyone got the message, though.
In New York yesterday, Vice President Joe Biden asked supporters to vote for Democrat Bill Owens and “Join us in teaching a lesson” to Republicans.
“President Obama is counting on us,” Addisu Demissie, an Organizing for America political director, told supporters in an email yesterday urging voters to make calls for Deeds and Corzine.
TPMDC interviewed Howard Dean earlier today, and he said the pre-spin was “silly.”
“If the Democrats won everything I’m sure the White House would say what a great referendum this is on Obama,” he said. “We play this game every four years. These races are mostly local.”
We clipped Gibbs’ spin this afternoon:
Late update: Republicans are sending around and using in interviews this Roll Call quote from Rahm Emanuel, the current White House chief of staff who led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2005:
“Whatever the outcome of those elections, it will have an impact on people’s interpretations of the upcoming election,” Emanuel said, adding that Democratic wins across the board could have a positive impact on the party’s 2006 recruiting efforts.”
