The new survey of the Nevada Senate race from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Harry Reid with a narrow edge over his Republican opponent Sharron Angle, in a voting environment that continues to show a big enthusiasm gap against the Democrats.
The numbers: Reid 49%, Angle 48%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.4% margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from all the way back in mid-July, Reid was ahead by 48%-46%.
This poll also tested a field including Reid and Angle, plus all the minor candidates that will be on the ballot, such as Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian. Reid leads Angle by 47%-45%, with the other candidates all picking up only 0%-2% each.
PPP’s Tom Jensen writes:
Reid’s small lead comes with a projected electorate that voted for Barack Obama by only 2 points in 2008, in contrast to his actual 12 point victory in the state. That’s one of the largest enthusiasm gaps we’re seeing anywhere in the country and if Democratic interest in the election picks up down the stretch Reid could see his lead expand to a more comfortable margin. If that doesn’t change this is bound to be one of the closest races in the country on election night.
This poll also provides some evidence that the Republican primary might have picked a weaker nominee. With former UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian (who came in third place in the primary) subbed in as the GOP nominee, he leads Reid by 49%-43%. Then again, Tarkanian has an advantage over both Angle and Reid: He isn’t running right now.
The TPM Poll Average gives Reid a lead of just 47.5%-47.3%.
