PPP Poll: North Carolina May Stay Blue

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On Thursday morning TPM reported on President Obama’s relative strength in Colorado, a swing state with changing demographics that seems to be unimpressed by the GOP field of candidates for President. Now new data from Public Policy Polling (D) shows that the trends are the same in North Carolina, a state that went Democratic for the first time since 1976 in the last presidential election.

Obama doesn’t retain massive popularity in the state: his job approval rating is only 46% against 50%, which is below our TPM Poll Average. But despite the recent dip in approval, he remains a more appealing option than candidates from the GOP field. The only matchup within the margin of error is against former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, whom Obama outpaces 46 – 43. The President is well ahead of the rest: up in the matchups against Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) 50 – 40, businessman Herman Cain 50 – 37, former AK Gov. Sarah Palin 52 – 39, and Tex. Gov. Rick Perry 48 – 40, fairly strong considering the speculation that as a southern governor Perry could perform very well below the Mason-Dixon line.

Just as in PPP’s polling of Colorado, the GOP field is simply not well liked by the North Carolina electorate: the highest favorability rating among the lot is Romney at a low 32%, and the unfavorables are 46% for Romney, 34% for Cain, 36% for Perry, 48% for Bachmann and 60% for Palin. So it’s not hard to understand why the field is having little success in direct matchups with the President.

Of course, this theme also has to do with North Carolina itself. The state has experienced massive population growth in recent years, changing demographics and a recovering (if not flourishing) economy. The population grew 18.5% in the last ten years, with metro areas expanding and the racial makeup of the population becoming more diverse. And of course, the burgeoning research triangle area (Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill) has brought in a number of transplants from other states to work research and development jobs, along with the growing Charlotte banking and financial sector.

The PPP poll used automatic telephone interviews with 780 registered voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

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