The new survey of the Nevada Senate race from Public Policy Polling (D)
shows Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Republican nominee Sharron Angle running neck-and-neck.
The initial numbers, including all candidates on the ballot: Angle 47% Reid 46%, Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian 3%, five other candidates at 0%-1%, and the peculiar Nevada option of "None of the Above" 1%.
When the question was asked against a strict two-way option of Reid and Angle, Reid has an edge of 49%-48%. Keep in mind that support for third-party candidates often collapses in the voting booth, with people breaking to the major candidates, though this effect is very hard to predict.
The survey of likely voters
has a Â±3.8% margin of error
. The previous PPP poll from early October put Reid ahead by 47%-45% in the multi-candidate race, and ahead 49%-48% in the two-way race.
The poll also estimates that 60% of the total likely voters have already cast their ballots early. Among this group, Reid leads Angle by 50%-46%, but keep in mind that this would be within the greater margin of error for a sub-group.
PPP's Tom Jensen writes:
Democratic voters in Nevada really hold Reid's fate in their hands by whether they show up at the polls tomorrow or not. Angle's 1 point lead is built on an electorate that supported Barack Obama by only 4 points in 2008, in contrast to his actual 12 point victory in the state. That means a lot of Democratic leaning voters aren't planning to vote tomorrow and if even a small percentage of them can be rousted out of complacency to go vote for Reid it might be enough to put him over the top.
The TPM Poll Average gives Angle a lead of 49.7%-46.6%.