In it, but not of it. TPM DC
Over the last month of the campaign this went from being a relatively competitive race to a not so competitive one. That didn't have a ton to do with Rand Paul- his favorability in early September was 45/40 and now it's 48/43, basically unchanged. The shift is more a reflection of Jack Conway's image with Kentucky voters being shattered in the closing days. Seven weeks ago his favorability split evenly with 36% of voters rating him positively and negatively alike. Now he's very unpopular with only 34% of voters saying they like him and 52% expressing unfavorable opinions toward him.
The TPM Poll Average gives Paul 50.3%, Conway 42.3%.