In a rare piece of good news for Democrats, the new survey of the West Virginia Senate race from Public Policy Polling (D) has Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin retaking the lead over Republican businessman John Raese, in the big-ticket race to succeed the late Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd.
The numbers: Manchin 48%, Raese 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.8% margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from three weeks ago, Raese led by 46%-43%.
The poll continues to find Manchin being extremely popular as governor, with a 68% approval and only 22% disapproval. However, he continues to be hindered by President Obama’s extraordinary unpopularity here, with an approval rating of 33%-61%.
I asked PPP’s Tom Jensen whether the recent flap over an National Republican Senatorial Committee ad — which was produced using a casting call for “hicky” looking actors — helped Manchin. Jensen said Manchin’s improvement in this poll is actually more of a function of Democratic motivation picking up — though the “hicky” ad might have helped:
The main difference between this poll and the one we did three weeks ago that found Raese up by 3 is a considerably higher level of Democratic engagement. I think the realization that it’s going to be a close race and that a Manchin victory is not inevitable is probably the biggest reason for Democrats getting more interested in voting, but I can see where the ‘hicky’ ad may have gotten some voters riled up against the Republicans who otherwise may have stayed home this year.
The TPM Poll Average gives Raese a lead of 47.9%-45.1%, on the strength of previous polls that have shown him ahead.
