From Daily Kos's analysis:
The wild card, once again, is Crazy Jack Davis, the Republican-turned-Democrat-turned-teabagger who is unquestionably hurting Corwin more than Hochul. While 19% of Democrats say they favor Davis, 24% of Republicans do the same. Davis in fact seems to be squeezing Corwin from both sides: He siphons off a large chunk of self-described conservatives (29% to Corwin's 52%), and also runs better among independents (31-20). Hochul, however, does best among that group at 37, helping her nose into the lead.
The biggest question, of course, is whether a third-party rich guy vanity candidate like Davis can hold on to his share of the vote once people actually go to the polls. It seems like more often than not, characters like Davis see their support slide by election day--but that's just two weeks away, so perhaps he can hang on, given the short timeframe.
Davis, a former Republican, has run for the seat three times before, becoming the Democratic nominee in 2004 and 2006. (He nearly won the 2006 race, due to incumbent Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds' connection with the Mark Foley scandal, but did not campaign actively except for self-financed ads.) He ran in the Democratic primary in 2008, only to result in he and the DCCC's favored candidate attacking each other and benefitting a third candidate who won the nomination. He sought the Republican and Conservative Party ballot lines for this special election, but is now running only on the "Tea Party" line.
The poll was conducted from May 5-8, surveying 1048 likely voters, and has a Â±3% margin of error.
Ed Note: This post has been corrected from an earlier version, which misidentified the 2006 incumbent as Tom Davis. The 2006 incumbent was Rep. Tom Reynolds.