Polls: Toss-Up In Race For Murtha’s Seat

PA-12 House candidates Mark Critz (D) and Tim Burns (R)
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Two new surveys show a toss-up result in the special election for the House seat in Pennsylvania formerly held by the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha, with a possible edge to the Republicans.

In a new survey from Public Policy Polling (D): Republican businessman Tim Burns 44%, Democratic nominee and former Murtha staffer Mark Critz 41%. Two key numbers form the internals are that President Obama’s approval is only 33% in the district, with 57% disapproval, and likely voters also oppose the new health care reform law by a margin of 59%-28%. The Democrat Critz recently ran an ad declaring his own opposition to the health care bill.

“It’s going to be somewhat amazing if Mark Critz wins this race given the way voters in his district feel about Barack Obama,” writes PPP president Dean Debnam. “His low ratings are something a long time incumbent like Murtha might have been able to weather, but you wouldn’t expect Democrats to win an open seat anywhere that gives Obama an approval rating under 40%. Still it remains a toss up with a month to go before the election.”

In a separate poll from McLaughlin and Associates (R), sponsored by former Sen. Norm Coleman’s (R-MN) American Action Network, Critz has a 40% to Burns’s 39%, within the ±5.6% margin of error.

From the pollster’s analysis: “The majority of voters (52%) would prefer a Republican congressman who will be a check and balance to Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress over a Democratic congressman who will help Obama and the Democrats pass their agenda (40%).”

It should be noted that there is another factor in this race that must be kept in mind, which gives the Democrats a potential leg up: The special election will be held on May 18, the same day as the statewide primaries. There are more contested Democratic races than Republican ones that day, and this could potentially boost Democratic turnout for Critz.

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