Polls Suggest Trouble For Freshmen Democrats In Battleground Districts

Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA)
Start your day with TPM.
Sign up for the Morning Memo newsletter

With midterm elections less than a month away, pollsters are trying to answer the question, “Which party will control Congress next year?” This morning, The Hill took a stab at the answer, releasing a set of twelve polls on battleground House races.

Their conclusion? Democrats have reason to worry.

The polls released this morning, conducted by Penn Schoen Berland, are of races that have freshmen Democrats vying for a second term in office. Included are surveys from races in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia districts. The overall findings are stark: in 11 of the 12 contests polled, the Republican challenger is found leading the Democratic incumbent. In the lone race without a GOP hopeful ahead, the contest is tied.

In six of the contests, the Republican’s lead falls within the survey’s margin of error, and no single race has a candidate eclipsing the 50% mark.

As pollster Mark Penn notes, “overall, we see a strong Republican trend in these districts, but given where these numbers are, the races haven’t broken yet.”

Among the surveys’ findings: Rep. Tom Perriello trails Republican Robert Hurt by one point, 45%-44%, in Virginia’s 5th District; Rep. Harry Teague is four points behind Republican former Rep. Steve Pearce, 46%-42%, in New Mexico’s 2nd District; and Rep. Betsy Markey is down three, 44%-41%, to Republican nominee Cory Gardner in Colorado’s 4th Distrct.

In addition to the twelve congressional races, the poll also posed various issue questions. When it comes to independent voters, the poll found that 43% of likely voters in these contested districts would vote for the Republican, versus 34% who indicated they would vote for the Democrat. In a similar vein, 51% of respondents who identified as independents said they prefer a divided government, with the president and Congress coming from different parties.

When respondents from these districts were asked about Obama, it became clear that the President is playing a large role in the races: 69% of likely voters from the twelve battleground districts stated their feelings about him would be an important consideration when they vote in the upcoming elections.

Finally, respondents were asked to indicate their feelings about healthcare reform. Numbers are not favorable for the Democratic initiative: in every district polled, the majority of likely voters indicated they want to overturn the new healthcare law.

Over the next four weeks, The Hill will be polling a total of 42 congressional races that they have deemed toss-ups. Following this week’s look at first-term incumbents, the surveys will next look at open-seat contests, then races with two-term incumbents, and finally districts with long-term lawmakers. Check out all of the polls’ data here.

Latest DC
Comments
Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Associate Editor:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Publisher:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Associate Publisher:
Front End Developer:
Senior Designer: