In it, but not of it. TPM DC

Poll: Sestak Posts Big Gains In PA-SEN

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The shift in independents could spell doom for Toomey's campaign. The ultra-conservative Republican has been relying on dissatisfaction with the economy to turn Pennsylvania's swingy electorate his way -- now it seems, that plan has run aground (in one poll, at least.)

"Toomey held a commanding lead with independents, 50-23," the pollster writes, referring to the August PPP poll. "Sestak has picked up the support of virtually all of the undecided independents and has pulled into a virtual tie with Toomey with that voting group, trailing now only 49-48."

Still most polls still show Sestak in a hole heading into the campaign's final weeks. The TPM Poll Average shows Toomey ahead 47.0-42.8.

The race is probably one of the most polled of the cycle, however, and trendlines show that the narrowing gap seen in the PPP poll is no fluke.