For the Democratic nomination, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo leads Attorney General Jack Conway by 47%-31%. Mongiardo was also the 2004 nominee for Senate against Republican Sen. Jim Bunning, who is retiring this year, with then-state Senator Mongiardo making it a 51%-49% race in a red state in a Republican year. This was widely thought to be due to Bunning's own gaffes, however, which are not a factor anymore.
In the general election matches this time, both GOP candidates maintain leads over the Democrats. Paul leads Mongiardo by 46%-37%, and Paul leads Conway by 45%-39%. Grayson leads Mongiardo by 43%-38%, and Grayson leads Conway by 44%-36%.