The new Rasmussen poll of the Kentucky Senate race gives Republican nominee Rand Paul a post-primary bump, posting a big lead against Democratic state Attorney General Jack Conway.
The numbers: Paul 59%, Conway 34%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. The previous Rasmussen poll from late April, before the primaries, gave Paul a lead of 47%-38% in a matchup with Conway. The TPM Poll Average, entirely of pre-primary data except for this new survey, gives Paul a lead of 48.4%-37.3%.
Rasmussen cautions against declaring a Paul victory to be a foregone conclusion: “While Paul is capitalizing for now on Tea Party unhappiness in Kentucky over national policies, he’s also a political newcomer who’s running against a candidate who has previously run both for Congress and for statewide office. Rookie candidates often make unforced errors and it is difficult to project how well the GOP candidate will handle the campaign trail between now and November.”
