A new poll of Oklahoma from Public Policy Polling (D) suggests that the 2010 Senate race in this deep-red state could potentially be a competitive one — that is, if GOP Sen. Tom Coburn retires.
Coburn easily beats two prominent Democrats, leading popular Gov. Brad Henry by 52%-40% and Rep. Dan Boren by 53%-36%. But if Coburn is out, the new match-ups are close calls. Former GOP Rep. J.C. Watts edges Henry 45%-44% and leads Boren 46%-41%, while Rep. Tom Cole edges Henry 44%-43% and just barely leads Boren 42%-40%. The margin of error is ±3.7%.
Coburn has said he’s genuinely undecided about whether he’ll run, and he hasn’t done much fundraising. We’ll see what happens there.
That said, my own opinion is people shouldn’t get their hopes up too much. This was John McCain’s single best state last year, giving him a 66%-34% win over Barack Obama. And the 2004 open-seat Senate race saw a lot of close polls between Coburn and Dem Congressman Brad Carson, only to have Coburn win by 53%-41%.
