A new Public Policy survey of the three-way Senate race in Alaska flies in the face of most recent polling. For the first time in weeks, it gives Republican nominee Joe Miller a 37-30-30 lead over his Democratic and independent rivals.
The previous PPP poll of the race, from Oct. 10, gave Miller a lead of 35-33-26.
Still, most recent data indicates that write-in candidate Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who lost the Republican primary to Miller earlier this year, has a significant lead over Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams.
The poll of 1539 likely voters was conducted from October 30 – October 31. Miller actually has the worst personal favorability rating of the three candidates. Only 36% have a favorable opinion of him (compared to 59% who view him unfavorably). Murkowski and McAdams rate at 37%-53% and 50%-30%, respectively.
Particularly given the challenges that go along with Murkowski’s write-in bid, this poll suggests Miller — and maybe even McAdams — are still very much in the race.
“This race has been so unpredictable I wouldn’t write off any of the candidates yet,” wrote Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Joe Miller certainly looks like the favorite but the biggest surprise in Alaska this year would be if there wasn’t a surprise.”
The TPM Poll Average gives Murkowski a 36.9-31.7-25.5 over Miller and McAdams.
