Poll: McDonnell Still Ahead In Virginia, But Dem Voters Could Surge For Deeds

VA-GOV Candidates Creigh Deeds (D) and Bob McDonnell (R)
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The latest poll of Virginia by Public Policy Polling (D) has Republican gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell continuing to lead Democrat Creigh Deeds — but there is a potential for a Deeds surge, as Democrats become more motivated and tuned into the race.

The numbers: McDonnell 48%, Deeds 43%, with a ±4.1% margin of error. On the surface this doesn’t seem to different from PPP’s number from a month ago, which was a 49%-42% lead for McDonnell.

Underneath the surface, Democratic voters are starting to get more motivated. A month ago, the likely voter pool had gone 49%-45% for McCain in 2008 (plus respondents who didn’t divulge their vote), in a state that actually voted 53%-47% for Obama last year. The new poll shows a voter pool that went 48%-45% for Obama, a step in the right direction. McDonnell has maintained his lead by locking down a greater percentage of self-identified Republicans, with 96% support, while Deeds is still at only an 82%-5% lead with Democrats, plus 12% of Democrats who are undecided.

“The race for Governor looks much more competitive heading into the last five weeks than it has for most of the last couple months,” said PPP president Dean Debnam, in the polling memo. “Democratic voters are showing more interest in turning out and that has Creigh Deeds within striking range.”

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