The new survey of the Wisconsin gubernatorial race by Public Policy Polling (D) finds the Republican candidates ahead of Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in the open-seat race to succeed retiring Gov. Jim Doyle. The key here is that Democratic voters remain soft and uncommitted to the presumptive nominee — which could potentially change as the race gets into crunch-time.
The numbers: Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker leads Barrett by 45%-38%. Former Rep. Mark Neumann, who left Congress in 1998 and lost a close Senate race that year against Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, leads Barrett by 41%-36%. The survey of registered voters has a ±3.9% margin of error.
From the pollster’s analysis: “Barrett should spend the next two and half months getting to know Democrats. Though he has the support of 46% of the party, 42% have yet to form an allegiance. Although Democrats don’t vote against Barrett in either horserace, a large percentage remains undecided; 20% in the Neumann race and 14% in the Walker race. Barrett should ensure the support of his base before the entering into the general election.”
The TPM Poll Average has Walker leading Barrett by 47.6%-40.4%, and Neumann leading Barrett by 44.4%-39.1%.
(Full disclosure: I was a volunteer back in 2002 for Barrett’s first gubernatorial campaign, in the Democratic primary. I have not had any additional political involvement with him since that time.)
