The new survey of the a Senate race by Public Policy Polling (D) gives Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey a narrow lead over his long-time nemesis, former Republican and now Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter. But in a crucial number, the outcome of this race could end up truly depending on President Obama’s popularity in the midterm election.
The numbers, among registered voters: Toomey 46%, Specter 43%, with a ±3.2% margin of error. With Rep. Joe Sestak as the Democratic nominee, if he were to win his Dem primary challenge against Specter, Toomey leads by 42%-36%. The current TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead over Specter of 42.4%-39.2%, and a lead over Sestak of 38.1%-31.3%.
President Obama’s approval rating in Pennsylvania is 46%, with 50% disapproval — a gap that is almost the same as Specter’s own current disadvantage against Toomey.
The pollster’s analysis makes clear that the outcome of this race will hinge on Obama’s popularity, and what his political fortunes are in November: “Specter has a 71 point lead over Toomey with people who approve of Obama. Toomey has a 71 point lead over Specter with people who disapprove of Obama. That makes Obama’s approval the deciding factor in who leads the Senate race and for now 46% of voters in the state approve of the job he’s doing to 50% who disapprove.”
Specter was first elected to the Senate as a Republican in 1980, and served for nearly 30 years as a GOP Senator known for his liberal positions on many social issues. He was challenged for the Republican nomination in 2004 by then-Rep. Pat Toomey, and won by only a 51%-49% margin despite having the full backing of the then-popular George W. Bush administration. Specter’s support among Republicans plummeted after he provided a crucial vote to pass President Obama’s stimulus package, and he subsequently switched parties when polls showed he would lose a primary rematch against Toomey.
