The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll
of the PA-12 special election gives Republican businessman Tim Burns the edge in the race for the House seat formerly held by the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha.
The numbers: Burns 46%, with Democratic candidate and former Murtha aide Mark Critz at 40%. The sample of likely voters has a Â±4% margin of error. The Democrats have held this seat since 1974, when Murtha picked it up from the Republicans in a special election held in the midst of the Watergate scandals. The special election will be held on May 18. The TPM Poll Average
gives Burns a lead of 43.0%-40.3%
Two key numbers: President Obama's favorable rating in this western Pennsylvania seat is only 38%, with an unfavorable rating of 55%. Respondents were also asked this question: "Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports and will work to improve the new health care reform law, or a candidate who will work to repeal it completely?" The answer: candidate who supports the bill 34%, candidate who would repeal the bill 48%.