In it, but not of it. TPM DC

Poll: GOP Sen. Burr Vulnerable -- And Somewhat Unknown In His Home State

Newscom / p79

The pollster's analysis suggests that the outlook for this race could depend on the national climate: "Burr's standing has improved a little bit as the climate has gotten worse for Democrats nationally but if Barack Obama's approval starts heading back in the right direction this race has the potential to be a toss up."

PPP communications director Tom Jensen points out to me that GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole had a 48% approval rating at this point in 2007, and led Democrat Kay Hagan by 43%-27%. Hagan won that race by 53%-44%, in a Democratic wave. "Burr's current leads are pretty flimsy and due largely to low name recognition of his potential opponents," says Jensen.