A new Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll of swing districts, commissioned by NPR, has a lot of bad news for Democrats.
The poll of 60 Dem-held districts and 10 GOP-held districts found voters across the board favoring Republican candidates on the generic ballot tests, as well as agreeing more with Republican messages on the economy, health care and other issues.
The Dem districts were split into two categories, with a first tier of very competitive districts such as Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL), Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL), and Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA); and a second tier of somewhat less competitive seats such as Rep. Allen Boyd (D-FL), Rep. John Hall (D-NY), and Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-PA). And in both categories, the Republicans were running head, thanks to a lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters and a widespread frustration with incumbents.
From the pollster’s analysis: “The results are a wake-up call for Democrats whose loses in the House could well exceed 30 seats. In the named-congressional ballot in the 60 Democratic districts, Democrats trail their Republican opponent, 42 to 47 percent, with only a third saying they want to vote to-relect their member. In the top tier of 30 most competitive seats, the Democratic candidate trails by 9 points (39 to 48 percent) and by 2 points in the next tier of 30 seats (45 to 47 percent). On the other hand, the Republican candidates are running well ahead in their most competitive seats ( 53 to 37 percent). As we saw in the special election in PA-12, Democrats will have to battle on a seat-by-seat basis — that has shifted these kinds of numbers this year.”
