Poll: Embattled Sen. Ensign Could Lose Primary Challenge

Rep. Dean Heller (R-NV) and Sen. John Ensign (R-NV)
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Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) is no David Vitter (R-LA), the Senator who won reelection last year despite having cheated on his wife with prostitutes. But that doesn’t mean he’s sitting pretty in the Silver State.

Bogged down by a sex scandal and ethics investigations, a new poll conducted by the Tarrance Group shows that Ensign (R-NV) could get knocked off in a primary challenge next year if he decides to seek reelection.

In the poll, Rep. Dean Heller (R) led Ensign in a head to head primary matchup, 53% to 38%. And while the poll was commissioned by the Heller camp — usually a sign that it should be taken with a grain of salt — the results still paint a bleak picture of Ensign’s reelection prospects, with Heller coming out on top with several crucial GOP demographics.

Heller held a nearly two-to-one advantage over Ensign among “extremely conservative” voters. He also held a large advantage among Tea Party supporters, a group who helped oust several establishment candidates in last year’s midterm elections — including neighboring Utah’s incumbent Sen. Bob Bennet (R), who went down to a Tea Party-backed primary challenger, now-Sen. Mike Lee.

Ensign has faced multiple ethics investigations stemming from an affair he had with a top aide’s wife. He paid $96,000 to his mistress and her family, prompting the Federal Elections Commission and Department of Justice to pursue cases against him. Those charges were ultimately dropped charges for lack of evidence, though Ensign is still being investigated by the Senate Ethics Committee.

The Tarrance Group poll was conducted January 18-20 among 601 likely Republican primary voters. It has a margin of error of 4.1%.

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