A new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) finds that freshman Rep. Harry Teague (D-NM) is in danger of losing re-election against his Republican predecessor, former Rep. Steve Pearce.
The numbers, among registered voters: Pearce 43%, Teague 41%, with a ±4.9% margin of error. Keep in mind that this is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters. What this means is that if the enthusiasm gap continues to favor Republicans, the ultimate election numbers could be even more difficult for Teague.
Teague picked up the state’s Second District in 2008, when Pearce retired from the seat in order to make an unsuccessful run for the United State Senate. (All three of New Mexico’s House members sought the Senate seat that year.) Teague picked up this normally Republican seat by a margin of 56%-44%, and John McCain only carried it by a 50%-49% margin in the heavily Democratic year.
PPP also tested the state’s other two districts, which are also held by freshman Democrats. The First District’s Rep. Martin Heinrich leads Republican Jon Barela by 45%-36%. The Third District’s Rep. Ben Lujan leads GOPer Adam Kokesh by 40%-32%, and leads GOPer Tom Mullins by 42%-36%.
“Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Lujan look like they should be good for reelection,” writes PPP president Dean Debnam, in the polling memo. “Harry Teague has built a good amount of support given how conservative his district is, but will have a hard time hanging on in this political climate.”
