The new Fairleigh Dickinson poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race gives Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine a slim edge over his Republican opponent Chris Christie.
The numbers: Corzine 43%, Christie 42%, and independent Chris Daggett 6%, with a ±4% margin of error. (Daggett was not listed as a choice, but was a voluntary answer.) This is basically unchanged from three and a half weeks ago, when Corzine was ahead 43%-42%-4% on this ballot test.
The pollster’s analysis shows just how much an effect the presence of Daggett and other independents will have, and how the result can depend on how many voters he keeps or where others go: “When Daggett’s name is read in an interview along with Jon Corzine’s and Chris Christie’s names, he gets 14% of the vote, drawing slightly more Democrats than Republicans, while Christie edges Corzine in a statistical tie, 41%-39%. But when the name of another independent candidate is read–the obscure Gary Steele–Steele gets 3% of the vote, draws off slightly more Republicans than Democrats, and Corzine beats Christie 46%- 41%.”
