The new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania shows a tight race in the general election for Senate, regardless of whether incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter or his primary challenger Rep. Joe Sestak is the nominee.
In the primary, Specter leads Sestak by 53%-30%, with a Â±3.9% margin of error, up from a 44%-25% Specter lead in early October, a sign that Specter could be solidifying his support in his new political party that he joined earlier this year.
In the general election, Specter is tied 44%-44% with his long-time nemesis former Rep. Pat Toomey, whose Republican primary campaign was a major factor in Specter’s party switch. This is essentially the same as in October, when Toomey had an insignificant lead of 43%-42%. If Sestak is the nominee, Toomey currently holds a 40%-35% lead, not significantly changed from a 38%-35% Toomey lead in October.
Specter’s approval rating is 47%, with 45% disapproval, and only 38% say he deserves to be re-elected, with 50% saying he does not. From the pollster’s analysis: “Specter has the state’s Democratic registration advantage on his side, while Toomey can take heart in the numbers that show problems for Specter in measures in addition to the horse race.”