We now have the first poll of the Senate seat in New Hampshire, which will be an open GOP-held seat in 2010 because of the appointment of Judd Gregg as Commerce Secretary and the selection of a caretaker Republican to hold the seat for now. And it’s a close race.
Public Policy Polling (D) has close results in all four trial runs. Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes leads former Congressman Charlie Bass 40%-37%, and edges edges former Senator John Sununu 46%-44%. The Republicans have statistically insignificant leads over Dem Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter: Bass leads 43%-42%, and Sununu is up 46%-45%. The margin of error is ±2.7%.
Hodes is currently the only announced candidate. You might have noticed that the two Republicans above are both ex-officeholders who were defeated. There is a reason for this: New Hampshire has swung drastically from the Republicans to the Democrats in recent years, and there simply isn’t a bench of elected Republicans who already have enough statewide recognition to be included in a poll. That fact alone could lead one to believe this race leans slightly Dem.
