Former governor Jeb Bush (R) may have no intention of running for president, but if he decides to hop in the Senate race in Florida, he looks poised to knock off incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D), according to a new Mason-Dixon poll.
In the poll, the former Florida governor led Nelson by an eight-points margin, 49% to 41%. That lead is up slightly from the five-point gap shown in a survey of the race conducted in late December.
Though Nelson did manage to top the other Republican challengers paired against him, his leads over them are hardly insurmountable
Against Rep. Connie Mack, Nelson held a slim 45% to 40% lead. Nelson also led current Sen. George LeMieux 49% to 35%; Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos 48% to 27%; and Florida State Rep. Adam Hasner 46% to 24%.
While Nelson posted double-digit leads over Haridopolos and Hasner, both results come with the same big caveat: name recognition. In the head to head match-up between Nelson and Haridopolos, 25% of respondents said they were undecided. An even larger number, 30%, were undecided when Hasner was presented as the GOP alternative to Nelson.
That’s likely because both Republicans are nearly unknown in the state. In a PPP poll last December, only a third of respondents knew Haridopolos well enough to form an opinion of him, while barely one in five knew Hasner’s name. There’s no guarantee that either candidate will gain popularity as they gain statewide prominence, but there is certainly room for them to grow and close the gap on Nelson.
The Mason-Dixon poll was conducted February 9-10 among 625 registered voters in Florida. It has a margin of error of 4%.
