In it, but not of it. TPM DC
Over at Gallup, the granddaddy of presidential tracking polls, Obama has also seen a bit of a boost since the State of the Union. Before the speech, Obama's Gallup approval split was 47/46. In the last poll, taken in the days following the address, the numbers have shifted to 50/44. Gallup doesn't break out strong approval and strong disapproval the way Rasmussen does and in the pollster's own analysis of the recent Obama poll surge, Gallup says it's too early to tell if the speech had an impact.
The day after the speech, I dug into the overnight insta-polls that showed strong support for the speech among all viewers, and a shift in support for key policies and programs among Independents, who were a key to Obama's 2008 victory but have turned away from the Democrats in recent elections. The new approval polls don't confirm the insta-poll results on the policy front, but they do suggest that results showing that the speech revitalized Obama's image among his supporters -- and maybe changed a few minds among his detractors -- were not a fluke.
Late Update: A few of you wrote in after this story went up, arguing that the boost in Obama's approval ratings could be attributed more to last Friday's "Question Time" with the House GOP than to the State of the Union. I asked Scott Rasmussen about that, and he told me this evening that it's possible the Q&A session was part of an Obama boost, but that his polling shows the Obama approval surge began with the State of the Union.
"Did the Friday event contribute to it? I don't know; it's impossible to quantify," Rasmussen told me. "But what we do know is that the numbers from Thursday, the first night after the speech, showed the president got a bump."
Rasmussen said that Obama's stepped up willingness to take on the GOP, evident in both the State of the Union speech and the Q&A, fired up his base, and shook off some of his detractors leading to both the recent rise in rise "strongly approve" rating and the dip in the "strongly disapprove" rating. So it's possible the Q&A is part of the improved numbers, but unlikely that it's entirely responsible for it. Either way, Rasmussen said, the most important polling is still to come.
"The real key is where the numbers are a week from now," he said. "If [Obama's approval rating] stays up, it shows that he may have changed the storyline for the 2010 elections."
Later Update: Greg Sargent asked Gallup's Frank Newport the a similar question to the one I asked Rasmussen. Newport told Sargent that "it's possible" that the rising Obama approval ratings "could be a delayed reaction to the SOTU, the session with the Republicans, or some other factor." But Newport said his "data do not allow us to make that determination."