Th new University of New Hampshire poll, commissioned by the Boston Globe, gives Democratic candidate Martha Coakley a big lead in the January 19 spacial election for Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat.
The numbers: Coakley 50%, Brown 35%, and independent libertarian Joe Kennedy at 5%, with a ±4.2% margin of error. When undecideds were pushed, Coakley’s lead became 53%-36%, with Kennedy’s numbers staying the same. This poll contradicts yesterday’s survey by Public Policy Polling (D), which gave Republican Scott Brown a one-point edge because of a lack of Democratic enthusiasm.
As the Globe notes: “Although the Senate race electorate is fairly firm in its choices – 61 percent say they have definitely decided whom they will support, and 15 percent are leaning toward a candidate – special elections can remain volatile until the last minute. Turnout is also highly unpredictable in an election that follows a holiday and could be affected by winter weather.”