As you’ve heard, the New Hampshire state House just narrowly rejected a compromise gay marriage bill that Gov. John Lynch (D) was prepared to sign — only two weeks after they’d previously voted in favor of gay marriage. So what happened?
The answer comes down to a term often used in politics, just not all that much in this context: GOTV.
To start with, little old New Hampshire has absurdly large lower chamber — with 400 members for a state that has just two Congressional districts. Two weeks ago, the House voted 178-167 for the bill — meaning that 55 members didn’t vote. Today, the vote was 186 yes to 188 no, with 26 people not voting — 29 less abstainers than last time.
Looking at the two votes, there don’t appear to have been people switching from being pro-gay marriage to anti-gay marriage. The difference came from the anti-marriage equality forces doing a better job getting their folks to show up. This is probably not the last we’ve heard of this issue.
Late Update: Interestingly, there was at least one legislator who switched from yes to no — a gay Republican who opposed the new concessions to religious institutions not wanting to honor gay marriages.
