National GOP: Tuesday’s Primaries Show That Obama is Weak (No Matter What)

President Barack Obama
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The national GOP is already spinning tomorrow’s Democratic primaries as a defeat for President Obama — that even if Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) win against their intra-party challengers, the fact that there have been close races at all show that Obama is in political trouble.

In an e-mail sent out to reporters by National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Rob Jesmer, much light is made of news reports saying that Obama did not want to be seen campaigning for Specter, who could potentially lose tomorrow:

But the fact that the President of the United States and the most popular member of the Democratic Party sees serious political risk in publicly campaigning for a Democratic Senator, in a Democratic primary, and in a key swing state, speaks volumes. At best the White House political operation will narrowly win two Democratic primaries tomorrow, at worst they lost both after being heavily involved at the outset. It should raise serious questions in the minds of Democratic Senate candidates whether the President and the Democrats’ Washington agenda will be a benefit or a detriment to their campaigns this November. Recent history and current polling suggests strongly that it will be the latter.

The full memo is after the jump.

To: Members of the Fourth Estate

From: Rob Jesmer, NRSC Executive Director

Date: 5/17/2010

Re: The State Of Play For 2010On the heels of his historic victory in the 2008 Presidential election, President Obama announced with great fanfare and media coverage the formation of a new group called “Organizing for America.” Housed within the Democratic National Committee and aimed at harnessing the grassroots in support of the President’s agenda, the Washington Post reported, “the new group will be the flagship of ‘Obama 2.0.'”

More than one political pundit predicted greatness for this new political organization and even bigger problems for the downtrodden Republican Party.

Similar predictions resurfaced three months later when Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA) announced that he would be switching political parties in a desperate bid to salvage his political career. On the day of his announcement, the White House made clear that President Obama would be standing right by him and fully supporting his bid for re-election:

· Robert Gibbs: “[L]et me just repeat what the President told Senator Specter this morning: that he has the President’s full support; that he’s thrilled that he’s switched parties and is a Democrat …” (Robert Gibbs, Press, Briefing, Washington, DC, 4/28/09)

As part of his commitment to Senator Specter’s candidacy, the President traveled to Philadelphia in September to help him raise money and rally his supporters. In a speech that Senator Specter has since used for TV ads at the centerpiece of his campaign in recent weeks, President Obama vowed to put his political machine behind the Senator and closed his remarks with four words – “I love Arlen Specter.”

How times have changed.

On Tuesday, instead of rallying voters to go to the polls for Senator Specter, the President is scheduled to fly right over Pennsylvania and visit a factory in Youngstown, Ohio. As the New York Times reported last week “Mr. Obama seems unlikely to make a campaign visit for Mr. Specter before the primary, Democrats said. They said the White House is not eager to be embarrassed by having the president make a last-minute visit on behalf of a candidate who goes on to lose, as happened in the Massachusetts Senate and New Jersey governor’s races.” It’s worth noting however, that behind the scenes in Pennsylvania for example, the President’s political machine is in full GOTV swing. See this plea from OFA for example.

But the fact that the President of the United States and the most popular member of the Democratic Party sees serious political risk in publicly campaigning for a Democratic Senator, in a Democratic primary, and in a key swing state, speaks volumes. At best the White House political operation will narrowly win two Democratic primaries tomorrow, at worst they lost both after being heavily involved at the outset. It should raise serious questions in the minds of Democratic Senate candidates whether the President and the Democrats’ Washington agenda will be a benefit or a detriment to their campaigns this November. Recent history and current polling suggests strongly that it will be the latter.

Senator Lincoln’s stunning drop in the polls in the last year is the direct result of her decision to embrace the President’s agenda, including casting the deciding vote for health care reform, and then trying to run away from it when she realized how politically perilous it had become . As Arkansas News’ columnist John Brummett pointed out last week in looking at the recent polls – “Lincoln’s positive/negative rating among all voters is a horrid 28-53, worse even than Obama’s 33-48, and she loses to any Republican choice in November.”

This is important because background spin and excuses floated from the White House in the immediate aftermath of the Democrats’ recent losses, and in some cases even before Election Day, should not be ignored. For example in numerous press reports, anonymous White and Party officials said things like, “Creigh Deeds was a weak candidate,” “Jon Corzine had ethical issues,” or “Martha Coakley ran a bad campaign.”

While accurate to a certain extent, the much larger problem for Democrats was summed up succinctly by Creigh Deeds himself who told Politico in October that President Obama and Washington Democrats “made it very tough” for him in his race.

· Creigh Deeds: “Frankly, a lot of what’s going on in Washington has made it very tough … We had a very tough August because people were just uncomfortable with the spending; they were uncomfortable with a lot of what was going on, a lot of the noise that was coming out of Washington, D.C.” (Jonathan Martin, “Deeds Points Finger At Washington,” Politico, 10/6/09)

Last year, when the President’s approval rating in Pennsylvania was at 66 percent, Senator Specter’s approval rating was 56 percent. Today, the President’s approval rating has dropped 20 points to just 46 percent in this key swing state, and Senator Specter has dropped like a rock with him falling 18 points to 38 percent.

Unfortunately for President Obama and Democrat Senate candidates, this is not a unique circumstance. While the White House touts what they call a “mini-resurgence” in the President’s approval ratings, Real Clear Politics took a closer look at the polls last week and found that the President’s position is far worse in key Senate race states, as well as red states where Democrats are struggling to hold seats this fall. As RCP points out:

· In Arkansas, where Sen. Blanche Lincoln trails all potential Republican opponents, Obama’s net approval rating is -28. In Indiana, a state Obama won, his rating is -13. And Missouri, which he narrowly lost and hosts an open Senate race Democrats had thought was a prime pickup opportunity, his rating is -11.5.

On the night of Scott Brown’s victory on January 19th, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza quoted an anonymous Democrat party operative who “advises a number of targeted Members of Congress” and this is what he said – “My message to my clients? Jump ship now. Obama can’t help you.”

Four months later, as we observe the President’s absence in two key primaries in Pennsylvania and Arkansas, that message rings louder than ever and it should send shivers down the spine of Democrat Senate candidates on the ballot this November.

The perception that the President’s vaunted grassroots organization and his fundraising ability which led him to victory in 2008 would somehow transfer to Democratic candidates in 2010 has been exposed to be a paper tiger. It appears the American people want more than the White House formula of teleprompters and eloquent speeches, and instead ask that politicians actually listen to their plea for cutting wasteful spending, smaller government and lower taxes.

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