Democrats have quickly become aware of the potential of a defeat in the Massachusetts special Senate election — a race that has become close in some of the polls, despite this being a heavily Democratic state — and are working to mobilize Democratic turnout.
Over the last few days the Democratic National Committee, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and Organizing For America have all been stepping up, with the latest news that DNC national press secretary Hari Sevugan is headed to Boston.
A Democratic source in Washington tells TPMDC that the prominent public discussion of potential low Democratic turnout in the Massachusetts special Senate election could have a beneficial effect: Alerting Democrats to the problem and thus helping to boost that very turnout.
“Everyone’s freakout in Washington that this race is so close just shows how important turnout is for Democrats in Massachusetts,” the source said, arguing that the alternative would be a situation where nobody was paying attention and everyone simply assumed that Coakley would win easily. The source added: “This is a unique set of circumstances so it’s hard to model turnout, but the hyperventilation from Washington surely addresses any concern that Massachusetts Democrats are sitting on their hands.”
“Expect Washington Democrats to be very vigilant, not take their eye off the ball,” our source said. “This is an important race. This is Ted Kennedy’s seat.”
Polls have given a wide range of potential results, depending on the turnout model — from Republican Scott Brown being up by one point to Democrat Martha Coakley up by 15. Analyses of the polls from Mark Blumenthal and Scott Rasmussen (whose own poll last week was in the middle, with a Coakley lead of nine points) argue that the real question here is turnout — all of these polls are arguably correct, based on their own turnout models, and all of them consistently support the idea that a low turnout helps Scott Brown.
President Obama’s campaign group, Organization For America, posted a message on Friday urging Democrats from around the country to help out by calling Massachusetts voters: “While the large majority of Massachusetts voters support the Democratic candidate, Attorney General Martha Coakley, special interests have poured in hundreds of thousands of dollars to mislead voters — and the traditionally low turnout in special elections means this race could be very, very close.”
Also, the DSCC sent out a fundraising e-mail signed by executive director J.B. Poersch: “Keeping this seat blue is critical. Coakley is the 60th vote needed to pass health care and the rest of President Obama’s agenda. As Massachusetts’ first woman senator, she will help advance Kennedy’s legacy – fighting for equal rights, a strong economy, and our families and communities. Without her vote, health care won’t happen.“
