In it, but not of it. TPM DC

Mr. October? Blumenthal Pulling Away In Connecticut -- With Ex-Wrestling Exec McMahon Now On The Ropes


[TPM SLIDESHOW: Bringing The Smackdown: Linda McMahon's Campaign For Senate, And Her Colorful Pro-Wrestling Past]

The TPM Poll Average gives Blumenthal a lead of 51.6%-43.3%. As you can see from the graph, Blumenthal's lead started out being very wide, but both his and McMahon's trend-lines began approaching each other as straight lines -- but eventually the slopes of the lines began to stabilize, and no longer seem to be on a collision course.

Only three weeks ago, McMahon was closing in on Blumenthal, thanks to her big spending on the race, with many polls showing the race's margin shrinking to the mid-single digits. At the very narrowest results, Quinnipiac put Blumenthal's lead at only 49%-46%, and Rasmussen put it at 50%-45%.

But now those same pollsters put it much wider: Quinnipiac and Rasmussen both have Blumenthal ahead by an identical 54%-43%.

Of the eight public polls of the race from October, Blumenthal led by double digits in six of them. In the other two, he still led by six and 7.7%, respectively.

And indeed, this is starting to sink into the conventional wisdom -- the New York Times has now changed its rating on the race from Toss-Up to Leans Democratic.

Of course, a lot could still happen between now and Election Day. But for the moment, this is one seat where the Democrats seem to have a lot less to worry about than they do in other places.