The numbers: Paul 46%, Grayson 28%, practically the same as a 44%-25% result from December. The survey of likely primary voters has a Â±5.1% margin of error.
From the pollster's analysis: "Trey Grayson has made no headway in over four months, and it looks like Rand Paul is set to deliver a serious blow to the national Republican Party establishment."
One thing that might help Grayson is this question: "Do you have a higher opinion of Mitch McConnell or Jim Bunning?" The answer among likely GOP primary voters is McConnell 67%, Bunning 16%. It should be noted that Bunning endorsed Paul in mid-April, while McConnell has just gotten behind Grayson. So the question is whether McConnell's support will be enough to help Grayson out, or if it is too little and too late.
The TPM Poll Average has Paul leading in the primary by a margin of 42.3%-25.3%. The primary will be held on May 18.