Mason-Dixon Poll: Meek Leads FL-SEN Dem Race — And Rubio Leads General Election

FL Sen candidates Kendrick Meek (D), Charlie Crist (I), and Marco Rubio (R)
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Polling numbers from Mason-Dixon over the weekend suggest that after a couple of months of chaos, things are finally returning to normal in the race to be the next Senator from Florida. And here’s what normal looks like in the Sunshine State: the establishment Democrat, with the backing of President Clinton and President Obama, is leading the race for his party’s nomination. And the Republican nominee is leading in the general election.

A new Mason-Dixon poll shows Rep. Kendrick Meek — the Democratic Party choice in the race — well ahead of the upstart billionaire, Jeff Greene, who’s poured millions into the primary race to knock Meek off. The poll, conducted Aug. 9-11, shows Meek leading Greene 40-26. Another new poll, conduced by the Florida news site Sunshine State News, also shows Meek with a double-digit lead in the primary race.

However, past polling, including another new poll from the weekend, has shown the race to be considerably tighter. The weekend’s Ipsos poll shows Greene leading 35-31, which keeps with what we’ve seen in the past.

Meanwhile, the Mason-Dixon poll shows that Gov. Charlie Crist’s plan to salvage his collapsed Republican campaign for Senate with an independent bid has put him right back where he was before — running behind Republican Marco Rubio.

Since Crist abandoned the GOP in April, polls have shown him in the driver’s seat of the general election, running neck-and-neck with Rubio or slightly ahead of him. But the Mason-Dixon poll shows that with Meek as the Democratic nominee, Crist is back where he was before he switched — on the outside looking in. The poll shows Rubio leading the three-way race, garnering 38% of the vote. Crist gets 33% and Meek 18%. With Greene as the Democratic nominee, Crist leads with 39%, followed by Rubio at 38% and Greene with 12%.

The other new poll of the general election, from Ipsos — which showed Greene ahead of Meek — has Crist ahead in the general. Crist leads that poll with 33% of the vote to Rubio’s 29%. Meek gets 17%. With Greene as the Democratic nominee, Crist leads 32%-30%-19%.

The TPM Poll Average for the contest shows Crist with 35.4%, Rubio with 34.1% and Meek with 16.8%. With Greene as the Dem, the TPM Poll Average shows Crist leading 36.8%-34.4%-16.5%.

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