Republicans just took back control of the House and, at least right now, they’re in a strong position to retake the Senate in two years, according to an analysis of the 2012 Senate field by political scientist Larry Sabato.
As Sabato points out, the Democratic caucus currently holds 23 of the 33 Senate seats that will be on the line in 2012, meaning they have much more to lose than the GOP. Democrats will have to play a lot more defense and hope for help in the form of a strong down ticket effect from President Obama.
Also worrisome for Democrats, Sabato rates seven of those seats, six of them now in Democratic hands, as toss ups. If those races split four to three in favor of Republicans, and the two parties hold the rest of their seats, Republicans would swing their current 53-47 Senate minority into a 50-50 tie.
Sabato, the Director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, made it very clear that it’s far too early to use the rankings as a prediction of how things will shake out on Election Day 2012. “It is ridiculously early, of course. Any analyst who would call these ratings “predictions” should just open up a palm-reading service,” Sabato wrote in introducing the rankings. Rather, they are “descriptive short-term forecasts” presented as a starting point to trace the long, overall course of the Senate races.
Sabato ranks each race by how vulnerable a candidate will likely be in a primary or general election, and then, based on that vulnerability, how safe the seat appears based on a state’s typical partisan preference. The Senators whose seats he rates as toss ups are Joe Lieberman (I-CT), Claire McCaskill (D-MO), Jon Tester (D-MT), Ben Nelson (D-NE), John Ensign (R-NV), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and Jim Webb (D-VA.)
Sabato writes:
With six Democratic toss-ups to just one Republican toss-up, the GOP can obviously win the Senate in theory–but it is far too soon to say whether theory will become reality.
So again, while any firm prediction now would be pure speculation, the math does look good for Republicans so far.
Sabato’s complete ranking can be viewed here.
Correction: This post originally misstated the partisan breakdown if Republicans won four tossup Senate races in 2012. We regret the error.
