DailyKos is back in the polling business, having dropped the disgraced Research 2000 in favor of the team at PPP (D). And one of the new partnership’s first polls shows the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky, Jack Conway, struggling in the race against Republican Rand Paul.
The Kos/PPP survey of 959 likely voters in the Bluegrass State shows Paul leading 49-42. The poll has a 3.2% margin of error. Other recent polls have been all over the map, with some showing Paul with a huge lead and others showing the race essentially tied. The TPM Poll Average shows Paul ahead 47.2-41.5.
According to the Kos analysis of the new poll, internals show a tough road for Conway moving forward. Democrats say their numbers show things to be tight, and say the race is still anyone’s to win.
“The Democrats’ problem in Kentucky isn’t the enthusiasm gap — Rand Paul took care of that for us,” pollster Tom Jensen writes at Kos. ” It’s because after showing some wariness earlier in the summer, when we had the race tied, the McCain voters have pretty much all gone home to Paul. In late June he was getting 70% of their votes and now for all his missteps he’s getting 80% of their votes. In a state that went as strongly Republican last time as Kentucky Conway is going to have to be able to pick off more of their voters than that to have a path to victory.”A look at some of the erratic polling from the past month: