We’ve heard it all year from politicians of all stripes: the number one issue for Americans is jobs, jobs, jobs. But a new Gallup poll out this morning suggests that’s no longer the case. “Unemployment/Jobs” dropped to number 2 on Gallup’s regular survey of American concerns. Number one is now “the economy in general.” And the fastest growing concern, according to Gallup, has little to do with the economic crisis that’s gripped politics since 2008. Americans are increasingly concerned about illegal immigration, a return to an old conversation no doubt prompted by the controversial legislation in Arizona.
Should Gallup’s read of the shifting political sands hold up, it could alter the landscape for both parties in 2010.
“Jobs” dropped eight points on Gallup’s list of American concerns since the firm’s last poll in April. Today, 22% of Americans consider it the number one problem facing the country. Concern over the “economy in general” remained relatively steady during the same period. Twenty-three percent of Americans said it was their number one concern in April, and 26% say it’s the number one problem in America today.
Immigration had the most dramatic movement. Just 2% of Americans listed it as the country’s worst problem in April. In the new poll, that number shot up to 10%. That is the “highest Gallup has recorded in more than two years” for the issue, according to the pollster.
What does this all mean for 2010? It’s too early to tell for sure. But a decline in concern over jobs would likely be a boon to incumbents. Past polling has shown that voters place more of the blame for the state of the general economy at the feet President George W. Bush than President Obama, suggesting that Democrats might still have the edge in an election where general economic woes — and not unemployment — is the number one concern.
But the biggest shift could come from the increased focus on immigration. Republicans have spent much of the year not focused on the social issues that have sometimes divided them from independent voters in the past. They’ve spent most of their time talking about independent-friendly things (like, oh, “jobs, jobs, jobs.”)
But a conversation about illegal immigration is as likely to bring some of the more divisive rhetoric among the party base to the fore. And that’s likely to fire up progressive and an minority voters many are counting on to stay home in the fall.
But, of course, the debate could also be a real problem for Democrats. Politicians on both sides have said the Arizona law resulted from the failure of the federal government to take up comprehensive immigration reform that many say is desperately needed. There are few signs that the issue is going to get a serious hearing between now and Election Day, meaning that in a conversation about what’s going wrong at the border, Democrats could be left holding the bag.
