Democrats are circulating an internal polling memo out of Louisiana that finds Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) in a dead heat with David Vitter in the race for Vitter’s Senate seat.
“The race for Louisiana’s U.S. Senate seat has undergone a fundamental shift in the past few weeks,” the memo reads. “Vitter’s mishandling of the [a recent scandal] and the emergence of a strong Republican primary challenger are new, dramatic hurdles to Vitter’s already imperiled re-election prospects. Charlie Melancon’s active role during the oil spill has provided him with a platform to demonstrate his strong leadership on behalf of Louisiana voters on a statewide platform. The head-to-head vote with Charlie Melancon is now a dead-heat, fifty percent of voters prefer someone new to another Vitter term, and voter perceptions of Vitter are tanking as the electorate continues to warm to Melancon.”
The memo, compiled by the Democratic polling firm Anzalone Liszt reseach, holds that Melancon still trails Vitter by the slimmest of margins, 43-44, and that Melancon’s best hope for victory is to shore up the black vote. “Exit polling from 2008 shows Mary Landrieu won 96% of the African American vote against former Democrat John Kennedy. Assuming Melancon solidifies 90% of the African American vote on Election Day, the vote would move to 46% Melancon / 44% Vitter.”
With the memo set to be released shortly, Vitter’s camp sent out a fundraising pitch this afternoon, citing “national polling out of Washington [showing] Senator Vitter with a commanding 53%-33% lead among likely voters.”
TPM’s Polltracker finds Vitter leading Melancon by a large, slowly shrinking margin, with the most recent data now a month old.
You can read the entire memo here.
