There were no surprises in the Indiana Republican Senate primary tonight. Former Senator Dan Coats, who drew fire from conservatives in the final weeks of the primary fight, has been declared his party’s nominee, according to both the AP and the Indianapolis Star.
He defeated tea party favorite Marlin Stutzman and Rep. John Hostettler — who had the endorsement of Ron Paul — to win his party’s nod.
The stage is now set for an open seat battle few expected at the start of the cycle. When Sen. Evan Bayh (D) announced his retirement in February, a race most said was the Democratic party’s to lose became a toss-up that some experts say now leans in favor of the GOP. But before Coats can return to Washington a Senator after more than a decade out of office, he’ll have to defeat the man who Democrats say has what it takes to keep the seat on their side of the aisle: presumptive nominee Rep. Brad Ellsworth.
It’s hard to predict exactly how that race will turn out at this early stage. Ellsworth has been a successful fundraiser, seriously outraising Coats in the last quarter. Plus Ellsworth has Bayh’s full support, plugging him into a statewide party machine that propelled Bayh to victory many times in the past.
Coats has his own political contacts, though he last called on state voters to elect him way back in 1992 when he last ran for Senate in the seat he inherited from his old boss Dan Quayle. And Coats still has to deal with an upset portion of his base, who have attacked him as too establishment and too moderate on guns to be a modern Republican. Coats needs to mend fences with Stutzman and Hostettler supporters before he can run full bore against Ellsworth.
But in a Republican year, Coats is likely to be a candidate to watch as the cycle unfolds.
The TPM Poll Average for the Coats-Ellsworth race shows the Republican ahead by a margin of 46.5-33.8.
