Hawaiian Special House Election Could Split Democratic Vote

Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI)
Start your day with TPM.
Sign up for the Morning Memo newsletter

The pending resignation of Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) presents a potential pitfall for Democrats: A special election in which the Dem vote could be split, handing a strongly blue seat to the Republicans.

Hawaii special elections for the House don’t function according to the usual rules in other states, where candidates either compete in separate party primaries, or the parties select their candidates through committee meetings. Instead, a single-round election is held in which all the candidates appear on a single ballot, and the plurality-winner takes the whole thing.

Abercrombie was already running for governor, and three candidates were in the race to succeed him: Democrat Ed Case, who previously represented the state’s other House seat; Democrat Colleen Hanabusa, the state Senate President; and Republican Charles Djou, a Honolulu city councilman.

With these three candidates all running in the special election, there could be split voter demographics no matter which way you look at it: two Democrats against one Republican (Djou); two men against one woman (Hanabusa); or two Asians against one white person (Case).

Another big question here is when the election could take place. As the Honolulu Star Bulletin reports, the state doesn’t actually have money on hand to hold an election, due to falling tourism revenues in the bad economy. Abercrombie has not yet set a resignation date, so it’s even a possibility that the election could have to wait for the September primary.

The district voted 70%-28% for Barack Obama in 2008, when the Obama campaign very effectively took advantage of his Hawaiian origins. But before that, its voting patterns were less Democratic: It voted 55%-39% for Al Gore in 2000, and only 52%-47% for John Kerry in 2008.

“If it does end up being a special where there is no primary, it does help,” a Republican source told us. “Charles would receive not only the Republican vote, but a good amount of the independent vote in Hawaii would trend his way.”

The source said that Republicans had even been hopeful that Bush could carry the district in 2004. While that didn’t happen, Bush did come close. Nevertheless, the source conceded that the Democrats do start out on top. “Their biggest advantage is just the amount of registered Democrats,” the source said, also adding: “I think our biggest challenge is really how to not only get out the Republican vote, but how to sway the independent votes and even some Democrats our way, and really that’s the only way we’ll succeed here.”

A Democratic source expressed confidence that the Dems will hold the seat, given its strong Democratic performance, but said there are still too many variables to really explain the nature of the race. “Well, I think ultimately it’s a little bit too early to tell exactly how this is going to shake out,” the source said, “but the bottom line is we are confident there will be a Democrat representing this seat.”

The source added: “It’s so early at this point, there are so many moving pieces, the state doesn’t even know when the special election is going to take place. Let’s let that determination take place, and then let these other factors play out.”

Latest DC
Comments
Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Associate Editor:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Publisher:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Associate Publisher:
Front End Developer:
Senior Designer: