In it, but not of it. TPM DC

Grijalva On Exempting Union Health Benefits From Tax: Close, But Not Enough

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There are other potential fixes on the table to, including raising the threshold on the tax, so it only covers really expensive policies, and indexing the tax to health care inflation, so it doesn't ensnare more middle-class people over time. That would have to be paired with new funding sources to make up for lost revenue, and Democrats are currently considering a number ways to raise the money.

Grijalva says a combination of all the changes on the table could be enough to win his vote. But without those changes, he won't support it, and he says it will be "hard, if not impossible," for the bill to pass in the House.

"At this point, if we're dealing with what we have in front of us, I'm not convinced this is history moving forward," Grijalva told me. "Given the scenario you've just outlined, then perhaps it is a step toward history and many of us would be more inclined."

About The Author

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Brian Beutler is TPM's senior congressional reporter. Since 2009, he's led coverage of health care reform, Wall Street reform, taxes, the GOP budget, the government shutdown fight and the debt limit fight. He can be reached at brian@talkingpointsmemo.com