If Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) does end up running for Senate against GOP incumbent David Vitter — pitting a relatively conservative Democrat against a Christian Right champion whose career became mired in the D.C. Madam prostitution scandal of 2007 — it could be good news for the Republicans in at least one respect. That is, the GOP feels pretty good that they can pick up Melancon’s open district.
“It is one of the few districts in the country that actually trended more Republican last cycle,” a Republican source told us. The district voted 61%-37% for John McCain in 2008, up from 58%-41% for George W. Bush in 2004.
The national GOP had been aiming to soften up Melancon for a challenge in his seat for 2010, anyway — for example, he was the target of recent radio ads. If the seat opens up, and there is no Democrat with the advantage of incumbency, Republicans will see it as a ripe opportunity for a pick-up. “The fact is that Charlie Melancon was intimidated into running for the Senate,” the source boasted. “He saw the writing on the wall and reconsidered the DSCC’s offer.”
A Democratic source, on the other hand, says there are other factors that could keep the seat in Dem hands. Conservative Dems like Melancon have performed well in the district; Sen. Mary Landrieu carried it in her 2008 re-election; there is an existing strong Democratic infrastructure here; and a potential Senate candidacy by Melancon should help turn out additional Democratic support down the ticket.
