Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty officially announced his campaign for president on Monday in Iowa, after a two-month exploratory phase. He still remains something of an unknown quantity nationwide — but with a deep history all his own, as a former two-term Republican governor of a Democratic-leaning state.
As the TPM Poll Average shows, Pawlenty’s national favorability is just 21.9%, with an unfavorability of 21.7% — meaning that a strong majority of American voters don’t even know enough about him to have an opinion. As is natural for an unknown candidate, he trails President Obama by a very significant margin in the Poll Average, with Obama at 50.3% to Pawlenty’s 35.0%.
As such, he has been introducing himself to voters in the key early primary and caucus states, with frequent visits — and also to voters nationwide, with frequent TV show appearances, and most notably with campaign YouTube videos that strongly resemble action-movie trailers.
And in his announcement video Sunday night, Pawlenty pitched himself as a serious decision-maker, who would make tough choices: “I could promise that we can eliminate a $14 trillion debt, create jobs for 10 million people, restructure social Security and health care — all without making any tough decisions. Or — I could try something different. I could just tell you the truth.
“The truth is, our country’s in big trouble. We have far too much debt, too much government spending, and too few jobs. We need a president who understands that our problems are deep, and who has the courage to face them. President Obama doesn’t — I do.”
But in addition to the big-concept videos, Pawlenty has cultivated something of an aw-shucks personal image, talking about his blue-collar background. Also notably, in November 2009 he joked at an Iowa GOP event, quoting from the movie Talladega Nights, a Will Ferrell comedy about an idiotic NASCAR driver: “And thank you, Lord, for my red-hot, smokin’ wife.”
And in a new Time magazine profile, he discussed the decision-making process behind his running for president — saying that as a relatively young ex-governor, he wanted to stay active in public life, rather than “go make some money and play hockey and drink beer.” Michael Crowley writes:
And when I ask Pawlenty, during a second interview in Des Moines, Iowa, exactly when he decided he was up to the grand challenge of the presidency, he answers in less than grandiose terms, explaining how he’d set up a political-action committee in 2009. I try again, saying I am curious about when he first imagined himself worthy of the history books, ready to send soldiers to their deaths and endure the national stage’s harsh toll. “I don’t know,” he replies. “I wish I had a good answer for you on that.” Pawlenty says it is not an idea that crossed his mind 15 or 20 years ago but that as he considered life as a relatively young ex-governor, he felt obliged not to take the easy path and “go make some money and play hockey and drink beer.” He adds that he almost didn’t run at all. “Mary and I talked about this at length, and many times, and it was a close call,” he says, mentioning his wife of 24 years. He adds with a laugh, “It could have gone the other way for all the reasons you’re suggesting.”
Also notably, as Minnesota Public Radio reported a few months ago, the lifelong Minnesotan Pawlenty has sometimes been using something of a Southern drawl while on the stump, during some fired-up sections of his speeches:
So who is he, exactly?
Like other candidates, Pawlenty has taken strongly conservative positions in his run, and backing away from previous moderation. He has recanted his past support for cap-and-trade to deal with climate change: “I’ve just come out and admitted and said, ‘Look, it was a mistake. It was stupid. I’m not going to try to defend it.'” He has also categorically opposed raising the debt ceiling, favoring sharp, immediate spending cuts once the government can no longer borrow money.
On the subject of deficits, it is interesting to note that on his way out of office in Minnesota, Pawlenty fired back at the state Management and Budget analysts’ projections that the state faced a serious deficit of $6.2 billion for a two-year period. Minnesota Public Radio reported:
Pawlenty, who called the $4 billion budget shortfall he inherited in 2003 the “Incredible Hulk of budget deficits” is now downplaying the $6.2 billion budget deficit he’s leaving his successor. He characterized the projected deficit as “fiction.” Pawlenty focused on the $399 million budget surplus in the current biennium and said he’ll finish his term with a balanced budget.
“The projected deficit in the future is fictional in the sense that it’s a projection based on a bunch of events that aren’t going to happen.”
Pawlenty blamed Democrats for not adopting his full budget plan last session. But Democrats point out that Pawlenty’s past budget plan and the surplus he’s touting aren’t a result of fiscal belt tightening.
They say it’s a result of federal funds signed in to law by President Obama — the person Pawlenty may hope to replace in the White House.
Pawlenty also attacked the assumption of automatic spending increases, which were used in the budget projection. He said in a statement, “State government spending on autopilot is ridiculous and irrational. It is out of control and needs to be fixed.”
Pawlenty was elected governor in 2002, after having served as state House Majority Leader. He won 44% of the vote, followed by Democratic then-state Senate Majority Leader Roger Moe with 36%, and Independence Party (the party of Jesse Ventura) nominee Tim Penny, a former moderate Democratic congressman, with 16%.
Then in 2006, he was narrowly re-elected to a second term with 47%, with Dem state Attorney General Mike Hatch at 46%, and Independence party nominee Peter Hutchinson with 6%.
During his first term, Pawlenty had a Republican state House but also a narrowly Democratic state Senate. During that time, he was able to pass such conservative legislation as a concealed-weapon law. In his second term, however, the Democrats had strong majorities in both houses of the legislature, putting Pawlenty into a more defensive posture. During a budget standoff in 2009 and 2010, he sought to use a gubernatorial power to unilaterally slash spending items that had been previously passed, known as “unallotment,” but the state Supreme Court ultimately ruled against him, deciding by a 4-3 margin that he had overstepped his authority.
As the TPM Poll Average shows, Pawlenty left office with an approval rating in Minnesota of 44.2%, with 50.2% disapproval. Interestingly, the 2010 elections by themselves yielded an unclear picture on the Minnesota public’s feelings about the Pawlenty era overall: Democrat Mark Dayton was narrowly elected to succeed Pawlenty, but at the same time the Republicans took control of both houses of the legislature, creating a mirror image of the previous status quo.
In June 2009, Pawlenty announced that he would not run for a third term as governor, an office that is not term-limited in Minnesota. A local reporter asked him whether he was running for president. “I don’t have any plans beyond serving out my term,” he said. “So I’m not ruling anything in or out.”
In some ways, Pawlenty seems to have been positioning himself as a safe pick to be the “anti-Romney,” courting both establishment Republicans and conservative insurgents. His staff already includes defectors from other candidates and almost-candidates, including Romney. And with the decisions by Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS) and Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-IN) to not run for president, the road to be the mainstream anti-Romney choice appears to have become that much smoother.
Pawlenty recently spoke to a Tea Party rally in Romney’s backyard of Boston, Massachusetts, borrowing the words of fringe 2010 New York gubernatorial candidate and viral video sensation Jimmy McMillan. “The message for us should be this,” he said. “The government is too damn big.”
And last year, Pawlenty criticized the Massachusetts health care reform program — which ultimately provided the blueprint for President Obama’s federal health care reform, and the individual health insurance mandate — though without naming Romney directly.
