The new Fox News poll
of the Delaware Senate race finds Democratic nominee Chris Coons continuing to lead Republican Christine O'Donnell by a landslide margin -- and also reaffirms that the GOP would have likely picked up this seat if they had nominated the original establishment pick, moderate Rep. Mike Castle.
The numbers: Coons 54%, O'Donnell 38%. The survey of likely voters
has a Â±3% margin of error
. In the previous Fox poll from three weeks ago, Coons led by 54%-39%.
By contrast, if Castle were the nominee, he would lead Coons by 50%-33%, up slightly from a 48%-33% margin three weeks ago. Castle had previously considered mounting a write-in bid for the general election, but decided against it
a week and a half ago, just as the deadline to file as a write-in candidate ended. (A Rasmussen poll
suggested that Castle would not attract many votes, and would siphon more support away from Coons than O'Donnell.)
[TPM SLIDESHOW: Christine O'Donnell: Anti-Masturbation Crusader. Witchcraft Dabbler. Republican Senate Nominee.]
Fox's analysis points to the absurdity of this election better and more succinctly than I can: "O'Donnell, who used her first television ad to try to dispel the idea that she was a witch because of remarks she made as a television panelist years ago, was viewed unfavorably by 58 percent of voters. Coons was viewed favorably by half of voters."
The TPM Poll Average gives Coons a lead of 57.0%-37.7%. And just for fun, the TPM Poll Average with Castle as the Republican nominee has him ahead of Coons by 49.2%-35.2%.