An interesting pattern has started to emerge in this midterm election, which could be dominated by the continuing debate over the health care reform law passed earlier this year. A whole bunch of Dems from Republican-leaning districts have been running ads in which they tout their opposition to the bill.
So let’s take a look at some of these conservative Dems. Will their votes against the bill — and their public campaigning on those votes — actually work for them in November?
1. Rep. Mark Critz (D-PA)
One of the first Dems to take this route (possibly the first) was Mark Critz (D-PA), who won the special election for the PA-12 House seat formerly held by the late Dem Rep. Jack Murtha. Back in April, Critz ran an ad responding to a spot form his Republican opponent, Tim Burns, which attacked “liberals like Mark Critz” for passing the health care bill.
“That ad’s not true,” Critz said in his rebuttal ad. “I opposed the health care bill. And I’m pro-life, and pro-gun. That’s not liberal.”
The district voted for John McCain in 2008 by a margin of less than one percent — the only district in the country to switch from Kerry in 2004 to McCain in 2008. Critz won the special election by a margin of 53%-44%.
2. Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D-SD)
In July, Herseth-Sandlin ran an ad touting her determination to be an independent voice for South Dakotans. “It’s why I voted against the bailouts, and a trillion-dollar health care plan — but for expanding renewable energy and improving veterans benefits.”
South Dakota voted for John McCain by a 53%-45% margin in 2008 — which was actually a much better figure for Democrats than past cycles.
As Greg Sargent pointed out on Wednesday, some other Dems have been getting in on the act of talking about their independence from the Obama administration and the Democratic leadership. And indeed, some of them are talking about health care as an example.
3. Rep. Jason Altmire (D-PA)
IN this spot from Altmire, one constituent says: “Jason’s independent — no doubt about it, says one constituent in the ad.” This is followed by another: “You saw it when he voted against health care.”
Altmire’s district voted for McCain by a 55%-44% margin.
4. Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL)
Here’s an ad from Bright. “Bobby Bright is the most independent member of Congress,” the announcer says. “Bobby voted against the bailouts, against stimulus spending, against the massive government health care.”
Bright’s district voted for McCain.
5. Rep. Glenn Nye (D-VA)
Nye has yet another spot, in which the announcer boasts of Nye’s independence: “Standing up against a Congressional pay-raise. Voting against the health care bill, because it cost too much. And going against his own party, he voted against the Wall Street bailout.”
Here’s the kicker: Nye’s district actually voted for Obama by a 50%-48% margin — though that was a big and very much unexpected change from the district’s previous Republican history, such as its 16-point margin for George W. Bush in 2004.
